Wednesday, September 9, 2009

CHIB, Don't be shaken out

If you bought shares of China Banking Corporation (CHIB), at around 390-400, you might be tempted to sell now since the it's trending down.

But if you do your math, you can still put your stop loss for CHIB at around 348 per share. Since there's a PHP12 cash dividends and 10% stock dividends, thus at 348-360 per share of CHIB is still breakeven.

Further, my opinion is that there are motivated sellers out there, trying to pull down CHIB prices so that they can get in at around 400 per share. Further, based from the charts, CHIB prices does not react violently at EX-DIV date.

S - Stock Split (Stock Dividends)
D - Cash Dividends

Based from the chart above, after the ex-div date, there is a slight decline for CHIB, you have all the time to decide what to do then. No need to panic sell now, even if the price per share drops to 400.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Selling MEG at 1.52, ALL IN on CHIB

My Stop loss for MEG was supposed to be 1.50, however as of this writing there is a high possibility that it will move back below 1.50 in the coming days. DJIA is up today, however; for some reason, traders are selling which, caused the PSEi to drop as of 10:57AM September 09, 2009.

Yesterday, I've sold all my long term stocks and went all in on China Banking Corporation (CHIB) and SM Development Corporation(SMDC).

I'm averaging CHIB at 402 per share. I was not expecting for the PSEi to drop, it's just that out of all my bets CHIB is the winner, not to mention the cash and stock dividends. So I got lucky yesterday.

As for SMDC, my strategy is to buy one board lot per month. Since, SM Condos are very affordable, with a good location and relative to its price, have a good quality also. Further, condo brokers do not have a hard time selling SMDC units.

Currently, I sold all my short term stocks, I'm looking for MEG alternatives (waiting for the next MEG buying opportunity), one of which is Philweb Corporation (WEB). WEB however, would never be a long term stock for me, since their main business is online gambling. (I for one tried to get a license, however there's already a Philweb gaming on my street.) Further, there are rumors that Manila City, will no longer allow online gambling, I do not know if this ordinance was pushed through, but still, the laws for online gambling is difficult to predict, in my opinion.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Winning a bit on MEG due to DJIA

After buying MEG at 1.5 the other day, I bought another set of MEG at 1.48 yesterday since DJIA selling lessened, I tried buying it at 1.46 but it was impossible to get in, which I think is the support level of MEG.

The average buy price I have for MEG is at 1.49. Actually, according to Jesse Livermore, what I did was a bad idea.

I bought MEG at 1.5 to test the market, I was wrong and it slid to 1.48 (I should have stopped buying or sold the position) Then, I bought again guessing that 1.46 is the support level and there's nowhere to go but up. I just got lucky this time, but I should not make the same mistake again. I should have bought another set at 1.52 and 1.6. Since, the target price I'm waiting is at 1.72 - 1.8.

Anyways, what's done is done. I'll see next week if there's an uptrend on DJIA and on MEG stock. I'd probably buy again at 1.6.

Also, since I have two accounts, one for long term and one for short term trades, I've read that trading stocks for a long term is really more risky than having short term trades. Because, the market gives us good (uptrend) and bad (downtrend) signs based on the charts. Long term traders, ignore these signs and ride the ups and downs of the charts. That is OK unless it is October 2008.

So, I might rethink my long term account, I'll probably sell all my long term stocks, put the money on my citiseconline account. Also, I've given it much thought, the reason I was losing on my trades is not that I trade constantly, it's because I was too impulsive and impatient and let greed get in the way of my logic.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Megaworld Bet

After serious thought, I cannot really stop myself from doing short term trades. My solution is I opened a citiseconline account for my short term trading needs. Since you cannot really do short term trades on FirstMetroSec website (lots of technical problems). But I'm keeping my FirstMetroSec account though, I've been using it for a long time and I'm used to the User Interface.

Anyway, I'm still holding the same portfolio I posted before on my FirstMetroSec account (long term account),

As for the citiseconline account, I lost a lot on my PX bet, but I got it all back and gained a bit on my MEG. I'm not really a chartist or a technical analyst, but I cannot help but notice MEG has a cup and handle pattern. I actually bought this stock at 1.28, I was supposed to sell it at 1.7 but decided to sell it at 1.62.

And I'm planning to buy it back at 1.5, which is the current price today, but I only bought a few. If by tomorrow, DJIA continues to slide, I'll probably wait until it's on a 1.2+ level.

I bought at 1.5 thinking that tomorrow DJIA might rebound, at least I have bought something to average up. And if it slides, I did not buy to many to hurt me.