Short term trade or the buy and hold strategy?

I got a comment on my post, and this is the question I also ask my self a lot of times.

What strategy is better? Short term trade or the buy and hold strategy?

I created this blog, as a journal on my action based on what I currently think. So that I can review it from time to time and learn from my mistakes.

In summary though, based from my experience short term is the best way to make a killing. But it requires a lot of work like analyzing company news, analyzing external factors (i.e. DJIA, Gold Prices, Unemployement Data), fundamental research, reading the charts, asking around people who knows the company well.

I don't have time for that type of work anymore, so I'm sticking to long term strategy. If ever I'll try to be a short term trader again, I might have to quit my job and make day trading as my day job. Also, long term strategy does not mean buy and forget, you should still set your Cut Loss levels.

Short Term :
I made a killing on MER before, that's short term. I just really knew that the stock will rise due to the turf wars (MVP vs SMC).

Long Term:
As for my long term, I made a fair profit on AC, MEG and SMDC.

Other long term picks such as SMB and CHIB still has not gave me what I expected.

As for my opinion, short term trading is really like Sniping, "One shot, One Kill". While long term trading is like using a .50 calibre "Point and Spray".

Both methods will give you frags; however, the other just requires more skill and patience but has a better return.

Consolidating Market : Is GOLD the catalyst?

For the past 3 months, I notice that the market is in consolidation (but trending slightly up) that is why my money is sleeping. There are no violent index swings; and worse the stocks that I pick are lazy bastards. I got really bored.

Below is the graph I got from finance.yahoo.com, I compared both PSEi and DJIA. I noticed that we are actually on last years (2008) first half levels.

If you try to compare the 1st half of last year and now, you will notice that the current economic scenario is the same.


The first half of 2008, there are analyst that said that we are on the verge of collapse, and other economic analysts say that the idea of a collapse is absurd.

Fourth Quarter this year, after April 2009's low, we can see clearly that the worst is probably is over. There are news of good jobs figures in Australia and there are bad news like Dubai's debt crisis. See Stock News, Noise, Fear and Greed.

If you observe the bull and and bear market, there is always a catalyst.

In 2008 - Sub Prime Mortages and Collateralized Debt Obligation
In 1929 - Margin Trading and Easy Credit (i.e. installment plan, credit cards)
In 1999 (Dot Com Bubble) - Hyped-up (enourmous P/E tech stocks) and Options Trading

I cannot research the reasons for all market crashes, so just see this list List of market Crashes instead.

Thus, in order for the market to move from consolidation mode to bull mode, there must be a catalyst.

I'm paying close attention to bloomberg and other finance news websites and channels to analyze what the next catalyst is.

Chart from Kitco.

So far, all I can see that there is a violent activity in Gold. In 1 year it went up 47
% (in 6 months it went up 30%). However, is this enough? Currently no it is not, since in order for a catalyst to work, the middle class must participate.

I'll wait for Finance Institutions to offer Gold based consumer investment products, that offer a ridiculously high gain.

Stock News, Noise, Fear and Greed

I usually start my day by checking the bloomberg website. Lately a lot of significant news happened that made me almost rethink my strategy. Since my last post, Murphy's Law on the Stock Market, I'm still holding, waiting, praying and believing.

1. Dubai Debt Crisis (BAD)
I need to keep my eye on this story, since if Dubai defaults (which is unlikely though) we'll see another 1999-2000 market dip, similar to what happened when Russia also refused to pay-off their debts.

2. Australia to continue to Increase Interest Rates (NEUTRAL)
Having been to Australia just a month ago, this news cannot be seen as something positive yet. I went to Australia to attend technical handover since a large company there decided to outsource, to be able to stay competitive. Thus, there still might be fear of losing jobs and thus, not being able to spend as much.

3. Bank of America to Repay $45B Bailout Loan (GOOD)
This is obviously great news. But I'm still waiting for a stock buyback disclosures from the Large Banks. Since, if the current stock price is relatively low, and they think that everything is all good right now, then why don't they buy back their stock?

4. Gold Prices at 1200+ and still trending up (BAD)
In Philippines Stock Market, this news made Mining Companies stock jump. However, I'm now fearing a Gold Price bubble. When this happens, it might trigger panic and sell-of.


Majority of my portfolio is in Finance and Property sector. As for my finance portfolio, I'm still not bullish enough to put in more money, at the same time I'm not to bearish to lock in my profits. I'm still sticking to my Target Price.

As for my Property Sector (BPO Rental, Condominiums) , I feel bullish given the trend that to cut on costs, a lot of 1st world corporations are outsourcing. Thus, the recession might have been good to the Philippine BPO industry.

However, I'm setting my stops when DJIA falls to 9400 and PSEi falls to 2500.

Ayala Corporation recently announced a stock buy back, I wonder what new developments are they doing for them to be confident in buying back their stocks at 295.

Murphy's Law on the Stock Market

I made a statement on my previous blog that the PSEi will reach 3,000 and DJIA 10,000 before December, Quarterly Report, Stock Index Taxes.

I was right but I'm not too happy about it. Since the stocks I'm holding did not went up that much. I'm holding mainly CHIB and MEG, reason is that they are the stocks I think has the most potential.

But I won't be selling them anytime soon, experience taught me, that the moment I sell these stock, is the day that these stocks will move up. I'm not a superstitious person, I just realized that I was very impatient on my previous trades.

MEG - Very aggressive. Well positioned when the BPO sector recovers.

CHIB - Holding for 450 + cash + stock divs. (I believe :) )

Quarterly Reports, Stock Indices and Taxes

After the initial recovery/rally last May - June of 2009, DJIA and PSEi fell around -10%.
After accumulating stocks such as MEG (0.7), SM (200) and AC (200) at low levels, I was forced to sell them since I thought that the initial rally was a fluke. Although I still made a pretty large profit around 15-25%, if I did not sell, I should have made more than 50%.



Ever since I invested/traded in stocks, my mindset was always to be a mid-term to long-term trader, holding stocks for at least a month or so, depending on its performance. If the value of my stocks fell, I usually gave it around 2-4 weeks to redeem itself before I sold.

However, during the Q2 period, my thinking changed, I held stocks for a maximum of 4 days, since I usually sold before the weekend, gain or loss. On fear that the rally will be short. Which also did not work for me (stock speculation) .

Here are the mistakes that cost me a lot of opportunity losses.

1. Ave Buy for MEG at 0.7, Sold it at 1.0

• I always buy MEG since it's P/E ratio is low and it's potential earnings are high. Further, the negative press about its substandard condos, just proves that they always cut costs. And selling condos for me is not about the price or quality, it is about hiring good sales people.

• Sold since I've heard from a lot of my fellow traders that MEG might fall back to 0.3 level based on the valuations it got from the Deutsche Bank report and that MEG is having a hard time selling units and their BPO rentals are getting hit by the recession. (Job cuts)

2. Ave Buy for PX at 6ish, Sold it at 6.5

• I don't really know much about the mining industry, I just bought it since it's one of the mining stocks that has a low and positive P/E, and Gold prices are going up.

• Sold because I don't really now much about the mining industry. Thus, I don't know what indicators I should watch. I'll probably never going to put my money on mining anytime soon.

3. Ave Buy for SM and AC at 200ish, Sold at 250+

• I bought SM and AC since during that time, its P/E was less than or equal to 10ish. Also, it is a no brain-er since SM and AC will be the last corporations to be wiped out by the recession, thus on all stock you might want to buy, SM and AC are the safest.

• Sold because I felt the valuations of AC and SM is not at par with the current economic conditions. I was wrong.
  

4. Ave Buy for MER at 45, sold at 45 (2008)

• It was really cheap that time. And during recessions, the best advice is to buy utility stocks. Aside from food, clothing and shelter, this is the next staple.

• Sold for no reason, I just thought that other stocks have better potential than MER.

5. Ave Buy for MER at 120, sold at 200ish (2009)

• Bought it back, since I've read about the turf wars between MVP and Ramon Ang.

• Sold because I thought that the 10% gain per day cannot be sustained.

So given all these mistakes, the lessons I've learned is that I should not base my decisions for the short term. Also, most of the times, my analysis of a stock is amplified based on the charts.

For example, if I thought that MEG might have a negative EPS since most BPO are cutting jobs, my emotions gets amplified 10 times when the DJIA drops 100+ points.

Thus, I should think more logically when making decisions. (This applies on life too.)

Further, the charts proves that people tend to get scared before the Quarterly earnings, thus they tend to sell and hold on to their cash, then invest if the Quarterly earnings tends to be favorable.

Now, since the trend on the DJIA is showing that it might loss another 10% since the Q3 earnings reports is on its way, I think that DJIA would fall to about 9100 level and PSEI at 2700. But this is assuming Q3 will follow Q2's movements. Thus, I'm speculating that after the 9100 levels of DJIA, it will reach 10000 and PSEI at 3000 by Q4. Thus, I've decided to hold on to my stocks.

Further, coming from the BPO and IT sector, there is definitely a large surge in IT and BPO job demand for the past 3 months; thus, this is really a concrete evidence that the economy has really improved compared to the First Half levels.

Evidence:
First Half : I sent out my resumes last December 2008, I got a call and a Job offer last February 2009.
Second Half : I sent out my resume last August of 2009, I got 4+ calls a day on the same week and got a multiple Job Offers on the same month.

I feel optimistic that 10K DJIA and 3K PSI is due on Q4. However, there's still one factor that I do not have any idea how it will affect the markets though, and that is TAXES.

Since, if you held a stock for more than a year, you will have to pay taxes for the capital gains you make that year; thus, people tend to sell stocks before the year's end (October-November) and start buying again by December - January. Thus, a sell off might happen at Q3-Q4.

On the other hand, most of the stocks held today is bought last March-July thus, a sell-off might come late, probably at Q1 next year.

Although, a sell-off for tax reasons is not an indicator of a worsening economy, it is however another buying opportunity that we might make huge profits from.

If you know more about selling off due to taxes, please post a comment.

CHIB, Don't be shaken out

If you bought shares of China Banking Corporation (CHIB), at around 390-400, you might be tempted to sell now since the it's trending down.

But if you do your math, you can still put your stop loss for CHIB at around 348 per share. Since there's a PHP12 cash dividends and 10% stock dividends, thus at 348-360 per share of CHIB is still breakeven.

Further, my opinion is that there are motivated sellers out there, trying to pull down CHIB prices so that they can get in at around 400 per share. Further, based from the charts, CHIB prices does not react violently at EX-DIV date.

S - Stock Split (Stock Dividends)

D - Cash Dividends

Based from the chart above, after the ex-div date, there is a slight decline for CHIB, you have all the time to decide what to do then. No need to panic sell now, even if the price per share drops to 400.

Selling MEG at 1.52, ALL IN on CHIB

My Stop loss for MEG was supposed to be 1.50, however as of this writing there is a high possibility that it will move back below 1.50 in the coming days. DJIA is up today, however; for some reason, traders are selling which, caused the PSEi to drop as of 10:57AM September 09, 2009.

Yesterday, I've sold all my long term stocks and went all in on China Banking Corporation (CHIB) and SM Development Corporation(SMDC).

I'm averaging CHIB at 402 per share. I was not expecting for the PSEi to drop, it's just that out of all my bets CHIB is the winner, not to mention the cash and stock dividends. So I got lucky yesterday.

As for SMDC, my strategy is to buy one board lot per month. Since, SM Condos are very affordable, with a good location and relative to its price, have a good quality also. Further, condo brokers do not have a hard time selling SMDC units.

Currently, I sold all my short term stocks, I'm looking for MEG alternatives (waiting for the next MEG buying opportunity), one of which is Philweb Corporation (WEB). WEB however, would never be a long term stock for me, since their main business is online gambling. (I for one tried to get a license, however there's already a Philweb gaming on my street.) Further, there are rumors that Manila City, will no longer allow online gambling, I do not know if this ordinance was pushed through, but still, the laws for online gambling is difficult to predict, in my opinion.

Winning a bit on MEG due to DJIA

After buying MEG at 1.5 the other day, I bought another set of MEG at 1.48 yesterday since DJIA selling lessened, I tried buying it at 1.46 but it was impossible to get in, which I think is the support level of MEG.

The average buy price I have for MEG is at 1.49. Actually, according to Jesse Livermore, what I did was a bad idea.

I bought MEG at 1.5 to test the market, I was wrong and it slid to 1.48 (I should have stopped buying or sold the position) Then, I bought again guessing that 1.46 is the support level and there's nowhere to go but up. I just got lucky this time, but I should not make the same mistake again. I should have bought another set at 1.52 and 1.6. Since, the target price I'm waiting is at 1.72 - 1.8.

Anyways, what's done is done. I'll see next week if there's an uptrend on DJIA and on MEG stock. I'd probably buy again at 1.6.

Also, since I have two accounts, one for long term and one for short term trades, I've read that trading stocks for a long term is really more risky than having short term trades. Because, the market gives us good (uptrend) and bad (downtrend) signs based on the charts. Long term traders, ignore these signs and ride the ups and downs of the charts. That is OK unless it is October 2008.

So, I might rethink my long term account, I'll probably sell all my long term stocks, put the money on my citiseconline account. Also, I've given it much thought, the reason I was losing on my trades is not that I trade constantly, it's because I was too impulsive and impatient and let greed get in the way of my logic.

Megaworld Bet

After serious thought, I cannot really stop myself from doing short term trades. My solution is I opened a citiseconline account for my short term trading needs. Since you cannot really do short term trades on FirstMetroSec website (lots of technical problems). But I'm keeping my FirstMetroSec account though, I've been using it for a long time and I'm used to the User Interface.


Anyway, I'm still holding the same portfolio I posted before on my FirstMetroSec account (long term account),

As for the citiseconline account, I lost a lot on my PX bet, but I got it all back and gained a bit on my MEG. I'm not really a chartist or a technical analyst, but I cannot help but notice MEG has a cup and handle pattern. I actually bought this stock at 1.28, I was supposed to sell it at 1.7 but decided to sell it at 1.62.

And I'm planning to buy it back at 1.5, which is the current price today, but I only bought a few. If by tomorrow, DJIA continues to slide, I'll probably wait until it's on a 1.2+ level.


I bought at 1.5 thinking that tomorrow DJIA might rebound, at least I have bought something to average up. And if it slides, I did not buy to many to hurt me.

Day 4: Going ColdTurkey on stock market speculating.

I mentioned on my previous blog that stock speculating gives me money (i.e. MERALCO), but quickly takes it away.

This is the first week where I reverted to my tried and tested buying and holding until I reach my TP, ignoring trends and just concentrating on financial statements, volume, low P/E and projected future earnings based from the news.

I disregarded the thought that a major correction is coming and that I might lose the opportunity to get in at a lower price. But experience taught me, that even if I make the mistake I made last
October 22, 2008 stock portfolio, I'll just be patient and wait, and continue to buy stocks based on the criteria I mentioned above, and everything will be all right.

Thus, I bought the following stocks last Wednesday August 19, 2009, and most of it did well.


My current portfolio.

PROPERTY
1. Megaworld Corporation (MEG)
Price: 1.5
P/E Ratio: 8.02

2. SM Development Corporation (SMDC)
Price: 4
P/E Ratio: 285.71

HOLDINGS
3. SM Investments Corporation (SM)
Price: 325
P/E Ratio: 14.17

BEVERAGE
4. San Miguel Brewery, Inc. (SMB)
Price: 9.1
P/E Ratio: 14

FINANCIAL
5. China Banking Corporation (CHIB)
Price: 385
P/E Ratio: 11.69

6. Metrobank Corporation (MBT)
Price: 38.5
P/E Ratio: 17.74

Greed always gets in the way of my logic

I lost my gains on my PX positions today; thus I sold everything.

A lot of people always thought that a huge correction is coming, I've studied the market and I always thought the valuations are way to high given that there is no concrete basis for the recent rally, so there should be a market correction.

However, when I read the news that SMC is interested in getting PX, I quickly got in to it, thinking that I can make the huge MER gains I got before with PX.

Also, when I read that SMDC has a huge Q2 earnings, I also bought a lot of stock. Thinking that I can make the 30+% gains I did when I bought it at 2.

However, when I bought my MER and SMDC before, I really studied those stocks. When I bought SMDC at 2, the P/E was below 10. SMDC is now at 275+ P/E on 4/share.

I got greedy! I should have stuck to my plan, which is the sure and steady way to make money in the stock market; find stable companies, low P/E, high volume and high growth potential then buy small portions ( and on dips) and hold for at least a month.

I guess Jesse Livermore has a bad influence on me.

What now?

I'm expecting that those investment banks in the US, will have a good double digit Q3 earnings, all made possible by short selling.

I wonder when can citiseconline or firstmetrosec be able to have the short selling feature implemented?

I'll wait for the selling to subside, and start buying my tried and tested long term stocks.

From now on, I'll stick with what works, and speculating is not working for me. Speculating gave me a lot quickly and it quickly took it away. :)

A Place where a man eats his own words everday.

I've read from Reminiscences of a stock operator, that the stock market is a place where people eat their words all the time.

Enough said.

I sold all my other stock, put my bets on the following, PX and SMDC. PX gave me a handsome paper profit so far, I hope this will continue. I'll sell it when it reaches P/E of greater than 20.

SMDC, my long term stock pick, I'm expecting a another increase in EPS. My friend used to work for Megaworld (MEG), selling condo units, he quit his job and is now with SMDC. His reason is that, it is easier to sell SMDC units and few customers comes back to him and complain about the sub standard quality of the condos they bought. So that's my only reason. I'm a bit worried about the astronomical P/E of SMDC though.

Who got a shock from Meralco (MER)?

Not me.

I bought Meralco (MER) stock at 125 and sold it at 175 and 225. The reason I bought the stock even if at 125 the P/E is already more than 50x, is because of the battle for the Lopez' 13~% share. When the Lopez' announced that they would sell their 13% at the right price. I quickly bought a sizable amount of MER and SMC, thinking that SMC is bidding for a controlling position of MER and the Lopez' are waiting for the right price for MER. I was expecting at least 175.

When it reached 175, I quickly sold 75% of my shares thinking that, it was the peak, and I was expecting to move a bit higher around 180-190 due to momentum. Then, rumors circulate that the 13% of the Lopez' was already sold. Thus, I quickly sold the rest at 225.

I must admit that I'm glad I made those moves now, but before today, I was regretting it. I could have doubled up my stock if I sold all of it at 250, instead of 175 and 225, and that would still be a bargain given that it reached a high of 300+.

But still, I'm happy I played it safe, always watching the P/E, and I did not let greed get in the way.

Also, I'm pleased with myself for pulling out majority of my stocks out to the sidelines, except of course for SMC and SMB, because I believe MER will be the catalyst for the probable August to September PSEi correction.

However, I'll still keep an eye on MER, if it passes the 350 mark, I'll probably put some money on it, expecting it to go past 400.

As for now, I'm still holding on my SMC and SMB stock. Even if SMC might not have won the battle for control of MERALCO, they might made a huge profit, if ever they already dumped the stock. SMC's resistance at 63, I'm putting a stop loss for SMC at 58.

One more good reason to buy SMC

I've just posted that I'm pulling all my stocks out because I am expecting a major correction. However, I'm leaving behind 2 stocks, SMC and SMB.

I've also posted on my previous PSE Stock Tip entry why I chose SMC and SMB.

Now, there's one more reason to buy into SMC, and that is, as I am typing now, SMC is up 7.87% and is at 68.5 from 63.5 the other day.

Also, SMC and SMB are two of the RSA-Related Stocks that are not up astronomically. Thus, there is still potential for these two stock to be at the same level as the other RSA related stocks.

Download the PDF from philequity.net
Philequity Corner: Beneficiaries of the Turf Wars

Based from the article above, you can see that SMC, SMB and Petron are among the stocks that has not significantly gained due to the MVP and RSA rivalry.

But still, Q2 earnings for SMC is not out yet, I expect a drop in the EPS given all these acquisitions, but SMC is a long-term buy for me. So whatever happens to their short term financial statements, I'll still keep on accumulating this stock.

Major Correction before the Bull - SMC & SMB

I just sold all my short term stocks today. Leaving only two of my long term picks.

San Miguel Corporation (SMC)
P/E Ratio: 14.28
Current Price: 63

San Miguel Brewery, Inc. (SMB)
P/E Ratio: 14.31
Current Price: 9.30

I've read a lot of analyst views that mention that the PSEi is way too over valued at 2732.62.


It may sound that the negative comments are just done by bitter bears who are trying to pull prices down so that they can re-enter. However, based from the chart above the current valuation of PSEi is already equal to it's value last May - August 2008, and this is even before the start of a lot of bankruptcy fillings in wall street.

Personally, in the IT sector, the demand for COBOL and RPG experts, which is widely needed in the banking sector to handle their mainframe application, just started to pick up this July 2009.

However, the people I know, who at last got a job after almost a year of trying to look for one, informed me that the salary they got was almost half what they were making the previous year. So yes, there are clear signs of recovery in the banking sector but it's not quite there yest. Thus, I still do not believe that 2732.62 is the right value for the PSEi right now.

My analysis is that the investment banks were the first one to get hit by the credit crisis, and they should be the first ones to bounce back. Thus, I'm keeping an eye on the demand for Mainframe programming Jobs.

Why SM and SMB? Well SMB is a no brainer for me, I don't even look at the charts, I just know that a lot of people enjoy a weekend night out with San Mig Light. Even during bad times, like when my team mates got laid off, we drank our problem's away with a case of San Mig Light. Also, my close-friend and I, who now works for JPMorgan after months of looking for job, celebrated the event with another case of San Mig Light. Good or Bad times SMB sales won't get affected. The difference is just that on good times we might drink in a nice bar/club, and during bad times we drink at home. Either way, SMB will get their profits. It's just the bar/club selling their beer for Php75/bottle will get hit. See the financial statement if you don't agree.

As for SMC, since SMC is trying diversify similar to AC (sold at 285) and SM (sold at 325), I would not be surprised if the value of their stock would be at level of AC and SM, in 3-5 years after they make profits from their recent acquisitions. Also, I like the move with LIB. People are commenting about SUN Cell not even making a profit after years of entering the market as the third player so SMC-LIB will encounter the same problem. Well, SUN Cell is making a profit, however it's just DGTL (Sold at 1.2) the landline division is pulling it back. Thus, there's still room for one more player.

So I'll be waiting for the next correction in August or September of 2009, then I'll go all in. Analyst are projecting PSEi at 2400-2100 level as their buy target.

Ayala, San Miguel, SM Investments

Just when I thought that the economy is on it's way to a new bull market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped to 8100-8200 level. US Job losses is at 9.5%. And personally, the company I'm working for just CUT 5% jobs.

When the DOW dropped to 8400, I've already sold all my stock, because I was expecting the PSEi to take the same route. However, this was not the case. PSEi just dropped slightly and now it is moving slightly upward.

I can conclude that the US economy might now have a lesser influence on our market. My theory is that, Filipinos were always frugal with their spending. Maybe because in the Philippines the unemployemnt rate is always constant at 7-10%, thus people are forced to save.

Further, it is very difficult to get approval for a credit card or loans. Bank usually do not approve of loan application when there is no collateral. Thus, banks might not make really good profit, but it is unlikely for a banking meltdown in the Philippines.

As I said before and I'm saying again (April 2009 Stock Picks), I'm putting my money on these stocks, since AC and SM has a diversified portfolio and I feel safe. Also, I picked SMC for the same reason, but still waiting for the next good news to go all in.


Ayala Corporation (AC)
P/E Ratio: 17.70
Current Price: 270

San Miguel Corporation (SMC)
P/E Ratio: 13.60
Current Price: 60

SM Investments Corporation (SM)
P/E Ratio: 13.30
Current Price: 305

Penny Stocks - May 23, 2009

List of high volume stocks with less than PHP 1 per shares and low P/E.

1. Megaworld Corporation (MEG)
Price: 0.94
P/E Ratio: 5.03
Sector: PROPERTY

2. Filinvest Land, Inc. (FLI)
Price: 0.73
P/E Ratio: 9.13
Sector: PROPERTY

3. Music Semiconductors Corporation (MUSX)
Price: 0.13
P/E Ratio: 14.53
Sector: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

4. Premiere Entertainment Productions, Inc (PEP)
Price: 0.65
P/E Ratio: 6.5
Sector: HOTEL & LEISURE

5. Southeast Asia Cement Holdings, Inc (CMT)
Price: 0.79
P/E Ratio: 6.75
Sector: CONSTRUCTION, INFRASTRUCTURE & ALLIED SERVICES

6. ISM Communications Corporation (ISM)
Price: 0.03
P/E Ratio: 9.58
Sector: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

7. Abacus Consolidated Resources and Holdings, Inc (ABA)
Price: 0.96
P/E Ratio: 2.71
Sector: HOLDING FIRMS

8. Fil-Estate Land, Inc. (LND)
Price: 0.96
P/E Ratio: 11.43
Sector: PROPERTY

9. Ever-Gotesco Resources and Holdings, Inc. (EVER)
Price: 0.13
P/E Ratio: 2.31
Sector: PROPERTY

10. Solid Group, Inc. (SGI)
Price: 0.49
P/E Ratio: 2.58
Sector: HOLDING FIRMS

High Volume, Low P/E Stocks - May 23, 2009

List of high volume, bargain stocks.

1. Megaworld Corporation (MEG)
Price: 0.94
P/E Ratio: 5.03
Sector: PROPERTY

2. SM Investments Corporation (SM)
Price: 262.5
P/E Ratio: 11.45
Sector: HOLDING FIRMS

3. Manila Water Corporation (MWC)
Price: 14.25
P/E Ratio: 12.61
Sector: ELECTRICITY, ENERGY, POWER & WATER

4. Philex Mining Corporation (PX)
Price: 7
P/E Ratio: 8.4
Sector: MINING

5. Alliance Global Group Inc. (AGI)
Price: 2.8
P/E Ratio: 7.26
Sector: HOLDING FIRMS

6. Filinvest Land, Inc. (FLI)
Price: 0.73
P/E Ratio: 9.13
Sector: PROPERTY

7. International Container Terminal Services, Inc (ICT)
Price: 15.25
P/E Ratio: 10.14
Sector: TRANSPORTATION SERVICES

8. Aboitiz Power Corporation (AP)
Price: 5.4
P/E Ratio: 9.15
Sector: ELECTRICITY, ENERGY, POWER & WATER

9. Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC)
Price: 7.5
P/E Ratio: 6.52
Sector: PROPERTY

10. Vista Land & Lifescapes, Inc (VLL)
Price: 1.54
P/E Ratio: 4.67
Sector: PROPERTY

11. Benpres Holdings Corporation (BPC)
Price: 1.92
P/E Ratio: 3.01
Sector: HOLDING FIRMS

12. Pilipino Telephone Corporation (PLTL)
Price: 8
P/E Ratio: 8.33
Sector: TELECOMMUNICATIONS

13. Philippine National Bank (PNB)
Price: 23.25
P/E Ratio: 13.92
Sector: BANKS

14. Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV)
Price: 5.9
P/E Ratio: 8.04
Sector: HOLDING FIRMS

15. Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines, Inc (PIP)
Price: 1.42
P/E Ratio: 6.45
Sector: FOOD, BEVERAGE & TOBACCO

16. Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCB)
Price: 15.75
P/E Ratio: 9.16
Sector: BANKS

17. Semirara Mining Corporation (SCC)
Price: 39.5
P/E Ratio: 13.76
Sector: MINING

18. San Miguel Corporation (SMCB)
Price: 52
P/E Ratio: 11.79
Sector: FOOD, BEVERAGE & TOBACCO

19. San Miguel Brewery, Inc. (SMB)
Price: 9.1
P/E Ratio: 14
Sector: FOOD, BEVERAGE & TOBACCO

20. Security Bank Corporation (SECB)
Price: 42.5
P/E Ratio: 6.06
Sector: BANKS

Bear Market Rally or Recovery

PSEi closed at 2,049.46 a five month high since October of 2008. The DOW breached 8,000 last week and the support is now at around 7,700 - 8,000. The question to speculators now; is this the start of the economic recovery?

George Soros does not think so. The rally is just a ‘Bear-Market Rally’.

Another theory is that, the rally is caused by traders covering their short position. A lot of these traders are expecting another down turn in stock prices, that is why they're buying on margin now.

But why care about the world economy, when we're trading in the Philippine Stock Market? Well, we should care since only a few local investors or traders trade in PSE. As told by a stock broker friend, a month's transaction traded in the PSE is just a day trade in NYSE. Also, I think that the stock prices on the PSE are driven by foreign investors.

My theory, since gold is on a constant decline (forget about gold to reach 2,000 per ounce), currently at $883.60, means that investors and traders are unloading their gold and moving it elsewhere, just like what happened to oil prices. Bond on the other hand, is not a good investment right now, since the interest rates are low. Once the interest rates move higher, the Par value of the bond goes down. Thus, you'll not make any unless you wait for maturity. So the only option left is either put your money on the bank or trade in stocks.

Bull Market? I asked my friends in IT recruitment about the US job demands. The answers are the same, still low compared to last year. However, jobs are lag indicators; thus, it does not really help. So there's no bull market yet. Recovery? Maybe.

Despite all these speculations, comments, theories and rumors, I'm still putting my money on two heavy weight stocks.

Ayala Corporation (AC)
P/E Ratio: 5.66
Current Price: 214.00

SM Investments Corporation (SM)
P/E Ratio: 10.42
Current Price: 205.00

10 High Volume, Low P/E Stocks - January 30, 2009

Here's a List of High Volume (in Value) and low Price/Earnings Ratio.

1. Energy Development Corporation (EDC)
Price: 2.18
P/E: 3.77
Div: None

2. Megaworld Corporation (MEG)
Price: 0.58
P/E: 3.81
Div: None

3. Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)
Price: 34.5
P/E: 9.12
Div: Cash (Php 0.9 per share) TBA

4. Metropolitan Bank and Trust Company (MBT)
Price: 23
P/E: 6.38
Div: None

5. SM Investments Corporation (SM)
Price: 191
P/E: 9.71
Div: None

6. Ayala Corporation (AC)
Price: 195
P/E: 5.15
Div: Cash (Php 2 per share) Jan 06, 2009

7. Philex Mining Corporation (PX)
Price: 4.55
P/E: 2.69
Div: None

8. Manila Water Company, Inc. (MWC)
Price: 10.25
P/E: 9.669
Div: None

9. Banco De Oro UniBank, Inc. BDO
Price: 22.75
P/E: 7.95
Div: None

10. Alliance Global Group Incorporated (AGI)
Price: 1.64
P/E: 4.35
Div: None