Two Years in the Stock Market and What Did I Learn

I just realized that it's been 2 years since I created this blog and it's been two years since my first trade.

What did I learn?

By reading through all my post and all my past mistakes (experiences) I came to realize that I should have done the following :

1. Placed all my money on some stocks that I knew would not go belly up in the next 4 years. (i.e. MER, SMDC, SM, MPI - Since these stocks in my opinion have the most potential)

2. Typed in a wrong password to my Online account a couple of times until it got locked-out.

3. Had fun.

4. Unlocked my account 2 years after (which is now) and reaped the couple-of-fold PROFITS.

** I bought a lot of SMDC back when it was still 2 something, sold when it got to around 4, now it's at 10ish.
http://www.psetips.com/2008/10/my-portfolio-oct-22-2008.html


Since it's too late to profit from the recession.

Here's my new plan :

1. Hold and Buys some more of SMDC, MPI and AP.
2. Wait till it's the bull market again and sell before the next recession. (DJIA around 16K)
3. When I'm having that gambling urge, I'll go to resorts world and spend a couple of hundreds to ease it.

Should have stuck with fundamentals :(
I hope this is just a rookie mistake; I'm a sophomore now so I should know better.

METRO PACIFIC INVESTMENTS CORP (MPI) - Pattern

Since I started trading, I've read about chart patterns (i.e. double top, double bottom, cup and handle etc etc). I'm not really a believer of this strategy since I'm still basing my stock decisions on fundamentals.

Recently, I've been introduced to the Fibunacci Retracement which I tried following on my recent trades like CHIB and AP. I made a few percentage gains but not enough for a vacation. =)

One of my current and favorite stock is MPI, I noticed it has a 7-10 day cycle. I did not base my decision on buying this stock on this alone. However, last weeks rally and then today's sell down made me think that this might work.

I might have just, over-thought my decisions in buying and selling when in fact charting really works. This theory will be proven this Wednesday, which I'm expecting a huge sell-off. And will be my buying opportunity. (Caution do not follow)



My target buy price is : less than 3.5.

I hope this works!

Double Dip, 2nd Wave, 3rd Wave, Ghost Month or Friday the 13th

There are a lot of talks about a double dip recession on the news lately. I'm listening, but I'm not yet convinced, due to the following reasons :

1. Although, I have been hearing of layoffs happening this is just a result of the management playing too defensively.

2. No bankruptcy filings.

3. There's no collapse because, there's no bubble to begin with. (2007-2008, CDOs, Easy Consumer Loans and Mortgage).


My idea is that, this sell down in the stock market is either Wave 1 or Wave 2 of the Elliot Wave. Whatever the wave is, it's going to go up.

Let me know what you guys think.

CHIB : China Banking Corporation Analysis

I've been trading CHIB for more than a year now. I just want to share my points on why I went all-in on this stock.

Aside from CHIB constantly giving me 10% stock and 12.00 cash I can see some predictable behavior of this stock.

Since last year, there are 3 price increase for CHIB.

272 - 336 (April 2009)
304 - 390 (September 2009)
350 - 430+ (May 2010)

Of these 3 major price increase, there's always 5% resistance before it goes all the way to 20-30% gain.



Further, a 5% support also occurs before it goes down again.

Thus my strategy here was I got on board after the 5% resistance, and since there's a stock and cash div TBD, I think this stock will not plunge back to 360+ levels.

I just need to figure out what my stop loss is, in case this price increase is the initial price spike before the cash/div declaration.

See March - April 2009, there's no dividend declaration yet, then the second peak, September 2009 was when the record-date was announced.