Thursday, December 3, 2009

Stock News, Noise, Fear and Greed

I usually start my day by checking the bloomberg website. Lately a lot of significant news happened that made me almost rethink my strategy. Since my last post, Murphy's Law on the Stock Market, I'm still holding, waiting, praying and believing.

1. Dubai Debt Crisis (BAD)
I need to keep my eye on this story, since if Dubai defaults (which is unlikely though) we'll see another 1999-2000 market dip, similar to what happened when Russia also refused to pay-off their debts.

2. Australia to continue to Increase Interest Rates (NEUTRAL)
Having been to Australia just a month ago, this news cannot be seen as something positive yet. I went to Australia to attend technical handover since a large company there decided to outsource, to be able to stay competitive. Thus, there still might be fear of losing jobs and thus, not being able to spend as much.

3. Bank of America to Repay $45B Bailout Loan (GOOD)
This is obviously great news. But I'm still waiting for a stock buyback disclosures from the Large Banks. Since, if the current stock price is relatively low, and they think that everything is all good right now, then why don't they buy back their stock?

4. Gold Prices at 1200+ and still trending up (BAD)
In Philippines Stock Market, this news made Mining Companies stock jump. However, I'm now fearing a Gold Price bubble. When this happens, it might trigger panic and sell-of.

Majority of my portfolio is in Finance and Property sector. As for my finance portfolio, I'm still not bullish enough to put in more money, at the same time I'm not to bearish to lock in my profits. I'm still sticking to my Target Price.

As for my Property Sector (BPO Rental, Condominiums) , I feel bullish given the trend that to cut on costs, a lot of 1st world corporations are outsourcing. Thus, the recession might have been good to the Philippine BPO industry.

However, I'm setting my stops when DJIA falls to 9400 and PSEi falls to 2500.

Ayala Corporation recently announced a stock buy back, I wonder what new developments are they doing for them to be confident in buying back their stocks at 295.

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